tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post3646565870350775552..comments2024-03-12T09:18:33.410+00:00Comments on Four Dollars, Almost Five: The Monty Hall Problemrhiggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16246371823456833408noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-52195291960972571862015-03-04T18:27:49.641+00:002015-03-04T18:27:49.641+00:00Pelatihan SDM is a network marketing and training ...<a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/" rel="nofollow">Pelatihan SDM</a> is a network marketing and training information or training an employee who has worked with many consulting firms and training institutions.<br /><a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pendidikan-dan-pelatihan" rel="nofollow">pendidikan dan pelatihan sdm</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pelatihan-akuntansi-keuangan/" rel="nofollow">pelatihan akuntansi</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pelatihan-sales-marketing/" rel="nofollow">sales marketing</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pelatihan-manajemen-dan-bisnis" rel="nofollow">manajemen bisnis</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/manajemen-administrasi-perkantoran" rel="nofollow">administrasi kantor</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pelatihan-motivasi" rel="nofollow">lembaga training motivasi</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/manfaat-pelatihan-sdm" rel="nofollow">pelatihan sumber daya manusia</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/manajemen-piutang-account-receivables-management" rel="nofollow">training manajemen</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/training-for-trainer-agustus-2014" rel="nofollow">training sdm</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/informasi-pelatihan-sdm" rel="nofollow">informasi training</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pusat-informasi-training" rel="nofollow">pusat pelatihan</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/pelatihan-untuk-rumah-sakit" rel="nofollow">pelatihan rumah sakit</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net" rel="nofollow">training provider jakarta</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/" rel="nofollow">training jakarta</a>, <a href="http://%20pelatihan-sdm.net/" rel="nofollow">training consultant jakarta</a>, <a href="http://www.pelatihan-sdm.net/contact-us/" rel="nofollow">training center</a>,<br /><br />Metamorfosishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15837363371693875406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-67705272742327530912009-04-20T00:31:00.000+01:002009-04-20T00:31:00.000+01:00The best way to deal with the whole problem is jus...The best way to deal with the whole problem is just to consider- what are the odds that you guessed right first time? Makes it much clearer.Stephen Wellsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-63504788200671132152009-04-19T05:24:00.000+01:002009-04-19T05:24:00.000+01:00What a surprise, then, to discover afterward that ...What a surprise, then, to discover afterward that the car has a horn that sounds like a goat, while the live goats became silent in terror of it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-10475704001749344042009-04-18T08:26:00.000+01:002009-04-18T08:26:00.000+01:00I'd have a 100% chance of picking the car... becau...I'd have a 100% chance of picking the car... because I wouldn't pick the one that was making noise... unless it's a dead goat behind the doors... that would suck even worse than a live goat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-73427004117207116582009-04-16T21:53:00.000+01:002009-04-16T21:53:00.000+01:00Frodo and PF,
Thanks for the comments. Much appre...Frodo and PF,<br /><br />Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated! :)<br /><br />Rhiggsrhiggshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16246371823456833408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-44508144815384799602009-04-16T20:15:00.000+01:002009-04-16T20:15:00.000+01:00I saw this in that blackjack movie, um, 21. Now I ...I saw this in that blackjack movie, um, 21. Now I think I kinda almost understand it. <br /><br />Which is really saying something about your writing, rhiggs, as I can just barely add and subtract.PersonalFailurehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03034292023591747601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-27771942838569566942009-04-16T14:37:00.000+01:002009-04-16T14:37:00.000+01:00Rhiggs,
I like your writing style. It's energetic...Rhiggs,<br /><br />I like your writing style. It's energetic and infectious, and that well-placed "read more" link made me want to do exactly that. I think you could definitely take a crack at this science writing stuff!<br /><br />As regards the math, it's been several years since I did any of it, but it seems to me that the probability tree isn't correct because the game is apathetic as to whether your first choice was right, whereas the tree assumes that you chose correctly. I'm not sure if that makes sense.FrodoSaveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15224011199139875343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-91147035129880476332009-04-16T12:39:00.000+01:002009-04-16T12:39:00.000+01:00too much maths in school...
It's so much easier fo...too much maths in school...<br />It's so much easier for me to think with probability trees :)Anna Sethehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07863425770114336085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-28001549133559619332009-04-16T12:38:00.000+01:002009-04-16T12:38:00.000+01:00Hi Anna,
I'm no expert but from what I've read, y...Hi Anna,<br /><br />I'm no expert but from what I've read, your method is the 'conditional' solution, and is of course mathematically correct. But my way still holds. According to <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" REL="nofollow">Wiki</A>, it is the 'popular' solution. I see it as a way of verbalising the 'conditional' method, but actually using the same underlying maths. But in fact, thats not quite correct, as it all depends on the <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" REL="nofollow">set-up</A> of the game.<br /><br /><I>According to Morgan et al. (1991) "The distinction between the conditional and unconditional situations here seems to confound many." That is, they, and some others, interpret the usual wording of the problem statement as asking about the conditional probability of winning given which door is opened by the host, as opposed to the overall or unconditional probability. These are mathematically different questions and can have different answers depending on how the host chooses which door to open when the player's initial choice is the car (Morgan et al., 1991; Gillman 1992). For example, if the host opens Door 3 whenever possible then the probability of winning by switching for players initially choosing Door 1 is 2/3 overall, but only 1/2 if the host opens Door 3. In its usual form the problem statement does not specify this detail of the host's behavior, making the answer that switching wins the car with probability 2/3 mathematically unjustified. Many commonly presented solutions address the unconditional probability, ignoring which door the host opens; Morgan et al. call these "false solutions" (1991). Others, such as Behrends (2008), conclude that "One must consider the matter with care to see that both analyses are correct."</I>Intersting stuff!<br /><br />Rhiggsrhiggshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16246371823456833408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-90978906540081366562009-04-16T11:58:00.000+01:002009-04-16T11:58:00.000+01:00This problem is also explained by an autistic boy ...This problem is also explained by an autistic boy in the book 'The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time'.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5753436815554769132.post-28066135407510823872009-04-16T11:54:00.000+01:002009-04-16T11:54:00.000+01:00I'm not sure if you got that right. Sure, the conc...I'm not sure if you got that right. Sure, the conclusion is right, but I would calculate it differently:<br /><br />There are two round of choices:<br />1. The probability that you're wrong is 2/3 while it's 1/3 for being right.<br />2. One door was opened, now you choose between two doors. The probability to be right is now 1/2.<br />But then you have two multiply the two steps of a probability tree. The first step is 2/3 vs. 1/3 the second step 1/2 vs 1/2, thus 2/3 x 1/2 vs 1/3 x 1/2<br />(Overall possibilities: 1st right(1/3) 2nd right(1/2); 1st right(1/3) 2nd wrong (1/2); 1st wrong (2/3) 2nd right(1/2); 1st wrong(2/3) 2nd wrong (1/2) adds up to one)<br /><br />Kind of difficult to explain without a pictureAnna Sethehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07863425770114336085noreply@blogger.com